Non Plussed By Non Farm Payrolls

Best Binary Options Brokers 2020:
  • Binarium
    Binarium

    Top Binary Options Broker 2020!
    Best Choice For Beginners!
    Big Sign-Up Bonus!
    Free Trading Education!
    Free Demo Account!

  • Binomo
    Binomo

    Only For Experienced Traders!

Non Plussed By Non Farm Payrolls

There’s Growth But It’s Only Growing So Fast

The August read on the non farm payrolls data was positive, supports the idea of economic growth, shows a steady 2.5% YOY increase in wages but nonetheless did not impress the market. And that is a good thing in some ways. If the number had been too strong, if it had increased expectation of another interest rate hike it would have sent fear of the FOMC rippling through the market. As it is the number may be more than Goldilocks. It’s not too hot, not too cool with just the right amount of wage growth and an increase in unemployment to offset any thoughts that inflation may begin to creep into the economy.

The numbers are like this. The August NFP came in at 156,000 and below expectations for @175,000. This by itself is still good, not great, but OK save for the fact we got some negative revisions to June and July. The combined total is -41,000 which makes the August read defacto 115,000. The unemployment remains low but did tick up by a tenth to 4.4% suggesting that some folks have lost work, some new folks have entered/reentered the work force or a combination of the two. The labor force participation rate and the labor force to population ratio’s both held steady suggesting a small increase in both (assuming of course the population is always growing).

Weak Growth Strengthens The Dollar, What .

The bright spot in the report and the detail that has lead me to believe, over the course of the past year, that the economy is building up to a surge in activity is the average hourly earnings. Average hourly earnings have been rising at a tepid month to month rate over the past year and came in at +0.11% for August. This is nothing to cause the FOMC to rush into a rate hike but the YOY figures suggest that core inflation could begin rising very soon, and that may push them into a hike. On a year over year basis the average hourly earnings have been increasing at a steady 2.5% and have been doing so for more than 12 months.

Bottom line is that this report was weak enough to further erode forward FOMC outlook with a caveat. There isn’t likely to be a rate hike at the next meeting but there is a good chance we’ll see activity pick up later this year and that will lead to a possible rate hike by end of year or early next year. This outlook is backed up by the Index of Leading Indicators which has been positive all year, and the KC Fed’s Index of Labor Market Conditions which has been signaling economic expansion for the last 24 months.

A look at the chart of the EUR/USD confirms this as well. The pair has been testing resistance as Draghi induced speculation strengthened the euro and falling FOMC outlook weakened the dollar. Resistance has been confirmed once and today it was confirmed again. The pair shot up on the initial release as traders were expecting solid data and firming of the dollar. This move was halted just below the 1.2000 resistance level and supported by the Stochastic RSI. The indicator is moving firmly lower following a strong bearish crossover at resistance. In my opinion this pair is in full reversal with downside targets near 1.8000, 1.6000 and 1.4000 in the near to short term.

The risks are plain. On the one hand US data may not firm, FOMC outlook may not increase and the dollar will flounder. On the other ECB outlook and Eurozone data may strengthen to a point offsetting strength in the dollar and keep the pair range bound.

Non Plussed By Non Farm Payrolls

There’s Growth But It’s Only Growing So Fast

The August read on the non farm payrolls data was positive, supports the idea of economic growth, shows a steady 2.5% YOY increase in wages but nonetheless did not impress the market. And that is a good thing in some ways. If the number had been too strong, if it had increased expectation of another interest rate hike it would have sent fear of the FOMC rippling through the market. As it is the number may be more than Goldilocks. It’s not too hot, not too cool with just the right amount of wage growth and an increase in unemployment to offset any thoughts that inflation may begin to creep into the economy.

The numbers are like this. The August NFP came in at 156,000 and below expectations for @175,000. This by itself is still good, not great, but OK save for the fact we got some negative revisions to June and July. The combined total is -41,000 which makes the August read defacto 115,000. The unemployment remains low but did tick up by a tenth to 4.4% suggesting that some folks have lost work, some new folks have entered/reentered the work force or a combination of the two. The labor force participation rate and the labor force to population ratio’s both held steady suggesting a small increase in both (assuming of course the population is always growing).

Weak Growth Strengthens The Dollar, What .

The bright spot in the report and the detail that has lead me to believe, over the course of the past year, that the economy is building up to a surge in activity is the average hourly earnings. Average hourly earnings have been rising at a tepid month to month rate over the past year and came in at +0.11% for August. This is nothing to cause the FOMC to rush into a rate hike but the YOY figures suggest that core inflation could begin rising very soon, and that may push them into a hike. On a year over year basis the average hourly earnings have been increasing at a steady 2.5% and have been doing so for more than 12 months.

Bottom line is that this report was weak enough to further erode forward FOMC outlook with a caveat. There isn’t likely to be a rate hike at the next meeting but there is a good chance we’ll see activity pick up later this year and that will lead to a possible rate hike by end of year or early next year. This outlook is backed up by the Index of Leading Indicators which has been positive all year, and the KC Fed’s Index of Labor Market Conditions which has been signaling economic expansion for the last 24 months.

Best Binary Options Brokers 2020:
  • Binarium
    Binarium

    Top Binary Options Broker 2020!
    Best Choice For Beginners!
    Big Sign-Up Bonus!
    Free Trading Education!
    Free Demo Account!

  • Binomo
    Binomo

    Only For Experienced Traders!

A look at the chart of the EUR/USD confirms this as well. The pair has been testing resistance as Draghi induced speculation strengthened the euro and falling FOMC outlook weakened the dollar. Resistance has been confirmed once and today it was confirmed again. The pair shot up on the initial release as traders were expecting solid data and firming of the dollar. This move was halted just below the 1.2000 resistance level and supported by the Stochastic RSI. The indicator is moving firmly lower following a strong bearish crossover at resistance. In my opinion this pair is in full reversal with downside targets near 1.8000, 1.6000 and 1.4000 in the near to short term.

The risks are plain. On the one hand US data may not firm, FOMC outlook may not increase and the dollar will flounder. On the other ECB outlook and Eurozone data may strengthen to a point offsetting strength in the dollar and keep the pair range bound.

Exam Phobia

Have you ever felt before an exam or a test that you can`t remember any names, dates, figures that you diligently studied throughout your coursework? Your mind becomes blank, you can`t gather your thoughts, you experience nausea, your legs are shaking, and all you want to do is run away? Or maybe you felt so terrified before an exam that you couldn’t study properly or revise?

If you answered `Yes` to one or more of the above questions you might be suffering from exam phobia, defined as irrational, overwhelming, excessive and uncontrollable fear or dislike of exams.

Everyone get nervous before or during exams. While experiencing fear can be a positive thing as it can motivate you to harder work, phobia on the other hand is an amplified terror that has a negative impact on your life. Phobia makes your life very difficult as you do everything to avoid or if it`s not possible `survive with tremendous pain` the feared situation. In this state you can’t access your full potential and achieve the results you deserve.

Exam phobia is very similar to a fear of public speaking.

So how can you recognise phobia? What is the meaning of phobia? Can you cure exam phobia?

Let`s say you are a good student who has been studying diligently throughout the year. You are ambitious, you know that this exam is important, you want to pass. There maybe also pressure from your parents who want you (that is their beloved child) to be the best. You want to be the best too, and you don’t want to disappoint your parents. Before the exam you experience physical symptoms like insomnia, stomach cramps or diarrhea. You may not be able to eat or you eat too much. You start to wonder whether you are good enough to pass this exam. Your confidence goes down. You start to believe you may fail. You imagine all the negative consequences. You become nervous. You feel overwhelmed. You feel down. You start sweating or maybe experience headaches. You begin to wonder whether there is a point in revising if you are going to fail anyway.

At this point the fact that during the course you proved that you understood the subject and can discuss it with great insight and intelligence becomes irrelevant. You are so anxious that you start panicking, your mind goes blank, your heart start pounding, fear becomes so overwhelming that you can’t breathe. During the exam you don`t remember well known facts, figures, names or dates. You can’t summon up any of the facts or make any sort of argument, or coherent discussion.

You may know on a rational level that an exam is not a death sentence. It is just an assessment to see how well you understood a certain subject and how good your teachers have been in providing certain knowledge to you. You have performed your duty by studying for the exam and there are no consequences to be feared if you can’t answer all the questions. Even if you fail you can always repeat the exam. All of this does not matter if you suffer from exam phobia.

However, I have good news for you. Phobias are quite common (there is nothing to be ashamed of) and highly treatable. It is possible to cure phobia so I strongly encourage you to look for help.

Imagine how your life would look like without exam phobia.

Best Binary Options Brokers 2020:
  • Binarium
    Binarium

    Top Binary Options Broker 2020!
    Best Choice For Beginners!
    Big Sign-Up Bonus!
    Free Trading Education!
    Free Demo Account!

  • Binomo
    Binomo

    Only For Experienced Traders!

Like this post? Please share to your friends:
Binary Options Trading Secrets
Leave a Reply

;-) :| :x :twisted: :smile: :shock: :sad: :roll: :razz: :oops: :o :mrgreen: :lol: :idea: :grin: :evil: :cry: :cool: :arrow: :???: :?: :!: